The World Bank president, Robert Zoellick, recently called for a new coordinated global response to deal with spiralling food prices, exacerbating shortages, hunger and malnutrition around the globe.

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A lady bargains for pineapples at Nakasero Market in Kampala. The price of the delicious fruit has more than doubled.

Zoellick said the global food crisis requires the attention of political leaders in every country since higher prices and price volatility were likely to stay for some time. The World Bank estimated that 33 countries could face social unrest because of higher food and energy prices.

Price crisis and food shortage
The World Food Programme attributes the increase in food prices to increasing food demand for biofuel industries in its major food producing developed countries. When the demand of an inelastic product such as food increases, high prices result unless the supply increases to compensate for the increasing demand.

The UN food agency is now constrained in acquiring food for its most needy, especially the sub-Saharan Africa where food shortages are predicted. Food shortages are worse in sub-Saharan Africa because the per capita food production has decreased relentlessly in recent years.

The most-affected countries include Ethiopia, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Eritrea, Zambia, Niger, Djibouti and Sudan. The World Food Programme has carried out more emergency operations in sub-Saharan Africa than elsewhere.

Causes
Food shortage is easily conceptualised as a production problem; not enough food is grown. Global food production may be failing to keep pace with world population growth and demand. Scientists at the University of Wisconsin-Madison stated that the Earth is rapidly running out of fertile land and that food production will soon be unable to keep up with the world's burgeoning population. They revealed that more than one-third of the world's land is used for agriculture.

Production problems may arise from natural disasters to political disasters such as civil conflict and misguided economic policies. However, climate variability is farmers' greatest challenge in Africa.

The variability of rainfall, temperature and other conditions is the main factor behind variability in agricultural production. This in turn is one of the main causes of food insecurity. Climate variability and extremes may increase as a result of global warming.

Studies suggest that Africa will be most-affected by the effects of drought and desertification under climate change, and will experience continued food shortages. "Africa is more exposed to the impact of climate change than many other regions in the world. Climate change is affecting livelihoods that depend on the natural environment, which in Africa means nearly everyone," said Andrew Simms, the spokesperson for the Working Group on Climate Change and Development.

Southern Africa is becoming drier and the climate there is changing. It is the greatest worry for the UN. Climate change, and in particular, global warming, could affect agriculture in a number of ways. The overall predictability of weather and climate could decrease, making planning of farm operations difficult. The sea level could rise, threatening valuable coastal agricultural land, particularly in low-lying small islands.

Climatic and agro-ecological zones could shift. The current imbalance of food production between cool and temperate regions and tropical and sub-tropical regions could become worse. Distribution and quantities of fish and sea food could change dramatically. Pests and vector-borne diseases could spread into areas where they were previously unknown.

Africa cannot rely on food imports now as a result of droughts world wide. For example, in Europe, one of the worst droughts on record has hit Spain and Portugal and halved crop yields. Severe droughts have badly-affected crops in Cuba, Cambodia, Australia, Afghanistan, Vietnam, Morocco, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua.

Way forward: Practicing clean agriculture
Agriculture is not only a victim of global warming but also a contributing factor. Some 25% of carbon-dioxide emissions come from land use change (mainly deforestation in the tropics), and fertiliser use is one of the main manmade sources of nitrous-oxide emissions in the earth's atmosphere. It also alters the earth's land cover, which can change its ability to absorb or reflect heat and light, thus contributing to radiative forcing. Land use change for agriculture such as deforestation, and the use of fossil fuels in agriculture transport and processing are major contributors to climate change.

Farmers are replacing sustainable traditional African production systems such as subsistence farming and fallowing with environmentally destructive modern production systems such as monoculture farming, the use of hybrids, fertilisers and pesticides. We should, therefore, focus on how we can continue to produce food while preventing negative environmental consequences.

The writer is a concerned citizen